Hold onto your wallets, economic thrill-seekers, because itâs April 2025, and the U.S. dollarâs out here pulling a Dancing with the Stars fumbleâtripping over itself while the crowd gasps! đđ I used to be a hardcore disciple of Peter Schiffâs Goldpocalypse Cult đȘđ±, clutching my gold bars like I was Lord of the Ringsâ Gollum obsessing over âmy precious.â But now? Iâve swapped my doomsday bunker for a neon-lit stool at Brent Johnsonâs Dollar Milkshake Bar đčđž, where the dollarâs still got some strut, even as it stumbles. With foreign governments dumping U.S. Treasuries not to flood the market but to chase scarce dollars, and the dollar still tanking despite sky-high rates, Iâm spilling the tea on why I jumped ship, whatâs shaking the markets right now, and how Brentâs dollar-gold combo is vibing with this chaos. Buckle up for sarcasm, Avengers-level plot twists, and mad respect for both economic OGs. đ€âš
My Schiff Era: The Dollarâs Doomed, and Goldâs My BFF! đ„đ„
Rewind to 2023: Iâm rocking metaphorical tinfoil, preaching Schiffâs end-times sermon like Iâm Kanye dropping a surprise album. đ€ âThe dollarâs cooked! đł The Fedâs printing cash like itâs a TikTok dance challenge! đž The national debtâs a Stranger Things Upside Down monster, ready to devour us!â đŠ Schiff, the silver-haired prophet of fiscal Ragnarok, had me hypnotized with his Austrian School swaggerâthink Wolf of Wall Street meets Mad Max. đ§ââïž
Schiffâs logic was sharper than a John Wick pencil: the U.S. governmentâs spending like itâs on a Keeping Up with the Kardashians shopping spree, with a $35 trillion debt pile thatâd make Tony Starkâs ego blush. đ° The Fedâs QE party? Itâs Spring Breakers with a money printerâwild, reckless, and destined for a crash. đšïžđ” Schiff warned that de-dollarizationâBRICS nations flirting with yuan and goldâwas the dollarâs kryptonite. đŠčââïž His 2022-2023 predictions? A dollar collapse, hyperinflation, and a recession so gnarly itâd make the Great Depression look like a bad Zoom call. đ” He shouted, âHoard gold! đȘ Ditch the dollar before itâs worth less than a Fortnite emote!â đ”đœ
I was all in, my portfolio shinier than Drakeâs diamond grill. đ I fantasized about trading gold nuggets for artisanal coffee while the dollar burned. âđ„ Major props to you, Peterâyouâre the Matrix Morpheus, serving red pills of fiscal truth. đ§âđđ But then⊠slurp⊠I tasted Brent Johnsonâs Dollar Milkshake, and my world spun faster than a Fast & Furious drift. đđš
Brentâs Milkshake: Dollar Demand Rules, and Goldâs the Long Game! đčđȘ
Enter Brent Johnson, the slick CEO of Santiago Capital, strutting into 2025 like John Wick with a spreadsheet and a plan. âïž His Dollar Milkshake Theory is an economic Top Gun: Maverickâbold, high-flying, and flipping expectations. đ©ïž Brent says the dollarâs not just surviving; itâs thriving in the short to medium term, even as the world tries to ghost it. đđ» Why? The globeâs addicted to dollars like itâs hooked on Euphoria Season 3. đŠđž
Hereâs the 411: $300 trillion in global debt is dollar-denominated. đđ° Countries, corporations, even NFT bros need dollars to pay their bills. When the Fed jacks up rates (like now, with rates at 5%+), dollars get scarce, and everyoneâs scrambling like theyâre in a Squid Game cash grab. đ€ De-dollarization? Brentâs like, âPfft, try it!â đ Nations selling dollar assets or paying off loans? They gotta buy dollars to do it, sucking liquidity like a milkshake through a straw. đ„€ Johnson nailed this dollar rally in 2022 and still bets on it in 2025, calling the dollar the worldâs Iron Manâflawed but untouchable. đŠžââïž
But Brentâs no dollar simp. Heâs Indiana Jones, hedging with a whip-smart twist: gold will outshine all currencies, including the USD, as fiat systems erode. đȘâš Central banks printing money like itâs a Coachella merch stand? Thatâs devaluing paper currencies, and goldâs the ultimate flex. Brentâs portfolio vibe? Hold dollars for the rally, stack gold for the Endgame. đ Brent, you had me at âmilkshake,â and your gold callâs got me hyped! đ
The 2025 Dollar Drama: Treasury Sell-Off, Dollar Shortage, and a Weird Dip! đđ
Now, letâs zoom into April 2025, where the dollarâs pulling a M. Night Shyamalan plot twistâconfusing everyone! đ€Ż Old-school logic says high interest rates (Fedâs at 5.25%) make the dollar strut like BeyoncĂ© at the Grammys. đ Higher rates = juicier yields = investors piling into dollar assets, right? Wrong! đ± The dollarâs plungingâdown 9% since January, with over 5% of that in April alone, per the ICE U.S. Dollar Index hitting a three-year low. đ Itâs like the dollarâs starring in Titanic, sinking while everyone expected it to soar. đą
Whatâs the deal? A Treasury sell-off thatâs shaking markets like a Kardashian Twitter feud. đ„ Per the latest TIC data, foreign governments sold a net $86 billion in U.S. Treasuries from December 2024 to February 2025â$42.3 billion in December, $24 billion in January, and $23.4 billion in February. March and April? Likely way more, with 10-year Treasury yields spiking to 4.59%, a seven-week high. But hereâs the kicker: this isnât a dollar floodâitâs a dollar shortage, as Jeff Snider and Steve Van Meter nail in their analysis. đ
Foreign governments arenât dumping Treasuries because they âhate Trumpâ or want to tank the dollar. Theyâre desperate for dollars to fund their economies amid a global slowdown. đ Tradeâs tanking (WTO cut 2025 trade growth to 1.5%), and dollar-denominated debt is squeezing countries like a Jaws shark. đŠ They sell Treasuries to get cash, not to flood the market but to meet urgent dollar needsâthink local banks struggling with dollar loans or trade payments. This aligns with Brentâs Milkshake Theory: selling Treasuries creates dollar demand, as they buy dollars to settle trades. But paradoxically, the dollarâs dipping now because the sell-offâs overwhelming immediate market dynamics, flooding short-term supply.
Meanwhile, private investors are snapping up Treasuries like theyâre PokĂ©mon cards in the â90s. đ February saw a record $125.8 billion in net private purchases, the biggest since November 2023. Why? Theyâre betting on a recession (U.S. labor marketâs shaky, Chinaâs property sectorâs a Trainwreck) and expect Fed rate cuts soon, boosting bond prices. Itâs like theyâre channeling The Big Short, betting on a market flip. đ This private buying offsets some official selling but doesnât stop the yield spike.
Oh, and Belgiumâs Treasury holdings? Up to $400 billion, likely Chinese collateral calls via Euroclear, signaling dollar funding stress. Chinaâs not âweaponizingâ Treasuriesâtheyâre stuck in a dollar trap, needing greenbacks to stabilize their yuan. De-dollarizationâs buzzingâChinaâs gold stash is up 300 tons since 2022, and Saudi Arabiaâs eyeing yuan for oilâbut itâs not killing the dollar yet. đąïž Itâs a House of the Dragon mess, with Schiffâs voice echoing, âSee? Dollarâs done!â đ
Brentâs Spin: Dollar Shortage, Not Dollar Rejection, and Goldâs Killing It đ„€đȘ
Brent Johnsonâs chilling with his milkshake, smirking at the dollarâs April slump. đ„€đ Heâd vibe with Snider and Van Meter: this Treasury sell-off screams dollar shortage, not dollar hate. Foreign governments are selling Treasuries to snag dollars for their cash-strapped economiesâlocal banks, trade deals, you name it. This creates dollar demand, as they buy greenbacks to settle trades, which should, per Brentâs Milkshake Theory, spark a rally soon. The dollarâs dip? A temporary glitch, like a Marvel movieâs mid-act slump before the big comeback. đŹ Those Treasury sales tighten global dollar liquidity, and Brent bets the dollar will flex again when the dust settles.
Brentâs also high-fiving private buyers. Theyâre not idiotsâthey see recession risks (global tradeâs down, Chinaâs real estateâs a Disaster Artist) and are piling into Treasuries for safety, betting on Fed cuts. This fits Brentâs script: global dollar demand stays sticky, even in a dip. And his gold call? Nailed it. Goldâs up 15% in 2025, outpacing all currencies, as central banks hoard it like itâs Infinity War gauntlets. đȘđ Brentâs dollar-gold portfolio is like a Moneyball playâdollars for the short-term win, gold for the long-term W. đŻ
Why I Jumped Ship: Schiffâs Got Vision, But Brentâs Got Timing đ€đĄ
So, whyâd I ditch Schiffâs gold fortress for Brentâs milkshake bar? Schiffâs logic is sharper than a Black Panther vibranium bladeâU.S. debtâs a dumpster fire ($35 trillion and counting), and de-dollarizationâs a slow-burning fuse. His gold obsessionâs on pointâcentral banks are buying it like itâs Black Friday at Cartier. đȘ But his dollar crash predictions feel like Groundhog Dayâalways looming, never landing. The dollarâs still the worldâs Thorâbanged up but swinging. đ
Brent, though? Heâs Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verseâweaving a multiverse of dollar dynamics. His Milkshake Theory nails why the dollarâs resilient, even in this Treasury sell-off chaos. The worldâs too dollar-addicted to quit, and those Treasury sales? Theyâre a dollar demand signal, not a divorce. Snider and Van Meter back this up: foreign governments need dollars, stat, and Brentâs betting this shortage fuels a dollar rebound. Plus, his gold call aligns with Schiffâs but with better timingâdollars now, gold forever. Itâs like Brentâs got a DeLorean to surf this economic storm. đ
The UAE Curveball and Whatâs Next: Dubaiâs the New Dollar Don? đŽđ°
Oh, and a Mission: Impossible subplot: while Chinaâs juggling collateral calls and Schiffâs yelling âdollarâs toast,â the UAEâs pulling a heist. TIC data shows their Treasury holdings jumped $43 billion in January-February 2025, a 50-60% surge. Dubaiâs gunning to be the new Eurodollar hub, like Casino Royaleâs London. đ Theyâre not dumping dollarsâtheyâre all-in, positioning the UAE as a money center amid the chaos. Genius move, UAEâyouâre the Sopranos of this economic saga, playing every angle. đ
Whatâs next? Brentâs Milkshake could see the dollar rally if dollar demand spikes post-sell-off. But if Schiffâs right and de-dollarization or a yuan devaluation hits, weâre in Apocalypse Now territory. For now, Iâm riding Brentâs wave, with dollars and gold in my portfolio, ready for this Rollercoaster marketâs next loop. đą
Final Bow: Respect to the Titans đ
Schiff, youâre the Dark Knight of economicsâbrooding, brilliant, and warning of Gothamâs fall. Your gold callâs eternal, and Iâm stashing bars for the endgame. đȘ Brent, youâre Tony Starkâcocky, clever, and nailing the short-term plays with that Milkshake mojo. đ„€ Your dollar-gold comboâs my 2025 vibe. Both of you keep the economic multiverse spinning, and Iâm just here, sipping milkshakes, stacking gold, and dodging Treasury sell-off shrapnel. đđ„